The gap between pilot supply and demand has led to many industry players scrambling for pilots, with statistics showing no relief in sight without a change in business as usual. The 20-year North American pilot demand projections are for 95,000 pilots, according to Boeing’s Current Market Outlook, 2015-2034. Currently the richest source of pilot supply is Certified Flight Instructors (CFIs), and this segment is projected to supply 64,000 pilots at best, assuming unrealistic, optimum conditions – including all CFIs moving to the airlines at exactly 1,500 hours, the FAA requirement for Part 121 carriers.
How Did We Get Here?
A number of factors have led the industry here, with the time-intensive and costly path to becoming an airline pilot in the U.S. playing a major role on the earlier side of the career spectrum. A combination of academic instruction, substantial flight hours and a series of certifications often mean an accumulation of significant expenses, followed by more flight time typically built through a number of jobs before establishing one’s career job.
On the latter end of the career spectrum, Part 121 airline pilots have a mandatory retirement age of 65. A wave of pilots is now at or near retirement age, following a decade characterized by less hiring and numerous furloughs. This amounts to nearly 45,000 retirements at U.S. carriers over the next 15 years, according to “Initial Pilot Training: Better Management Controls are Needed to Improve FAA Oversight,” published by the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The result is increased demand to fill the gap left by retirements.
To gain a deeper understanding of the constraints facing the industry and opportunities to improve the outlook, let’s review this diagram of the U.S. Pilot Pipeline, created in partnership with the airline practice at Oliver Wyman Management Consulting.
Early Pilot Training
To become an experienced, rated commercial pilot requires approximately 250 hours of structured training that can be completed in as few as six months. In the U.S., this is typically self-funded, and can easily add up to $100,000. Often combined with a four-year degree program, expenses can increase dramatically. Prior to August, 2013, pilots who had completed this stage of training were eligible to become U.S. airline co-pilots.
Effective August, 2013, the FAA mandated having an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) rating, typically requiring 1,500 hours of flight time, to be an airline second-in-command (SIC). This compares to historic hiring being driven by market supply and demand, at times resulting in pilots being hired with as few as 300 hours to become a first officer or co-pilot. Most countries outside of the U.S. still only mandate 250 hours to fly right seat.
Many international airlines sponsor cadets by arranging and funding this part of training or giving loans that are paid back during employment that follows with the sponsoring airline. The U.S. is a prime location for this ab initio training (meaning “from the beginning”) due to solid aviation infrastructure, good weather in many areas, relatively low costs and wide access to resources.
Experience Path
We call the bridge to supporting pilot demand the “Experience Path.” This is constrained, with limited employment opportunities for accumulating the requisite hours. As a result, this dearth of flight hours available in this segment of pilot development is slowing the overall production of pilots compared to the period prior to August, 2013, causing Part 135 and Part 121 pilot recruitment challenges.
Not all pilots are created equally. Differing paths to pilot development lead to variances in pilot competence and capabilities. While flight time is an important indicator, it is not the sole factor in determining competence or readiness to fly passengers. Quality of training and in-flight experience are key. While FAA requirements are much more stringent than any other nation’s requirements, air carriers and businesses that have proven training programs and safety records rise to the top in creating superior pilots.
How Can We Fulfill Market Demand for Pilots?
Experience Path Partnerships
Given the bottlenecks and variances in the Experience Path, we need to utilize high quality resources efficiently. This means creating partnerships to make the flight instructor path more efficient, something historically lacking in the industry. Deep partnerships between Experience Path Partners and career-path employers can ensure a robust supply of high quality pilots throughout the Path, at reasonable overall cost.
Specifically, strategic partnerships that effectively connect the dots between commercial training schools/flight instructors and commercial airlines offer a non-traditional solution to the pilot shortage. Pilots just out of initial commercial training provide a distinct advantage as well: They have just gone through a very intensive program of potentially bespoke training in smaller aircraft, providing a fresher, highly pertinent skill set to Experience Path Partners.
Given that not all pilots are created equally, the Experience Path bridge in the partnership equation should entail paid employment with high quality carriers that offer top-tier training. ImagineAir, a Part 135 private air travel service that has flown over 25,000 flight legs to date, has built an exclusive partnership agreement with a highly professional flight school and a commercial airline. This will bring a pipeline of vetted, certificated pilots who have undergone high-quality instruction and 1200 hours of flight time, including substantial training tailored to its Part 135 operations, to ImagineAir. ImagineAir’s training goes far beyond FAA regulatory requirements, putting significant emphasis on in-flight training combined with simulator training, whereas the airlines typically rely exclusively on simulator training and only one supervised check ride with passengers before flying passengers as SIC. ImagineAir training includes mentorship from veteran pilots and additional training modules specific to the Cirrus aircraft. Once pilots that have come through this partnership program have completed 1500 hours, they will join the partnered commercial airline.
The Tail End of the Experience Spectrum
Hiring retired airline pilots and former military personnel can help alleviate the pilot shortage. Mandatory retirement from Part 121 carriers at age 65 prevents them from flying for commercial airlines, and retirement from the military typically occurs at a younger age. Often, pilots retire and have no problem maintaining a current and valid first class medical certificate. They remain completely fit to fly, and can bring exceptional experience to Part 135 operators to help satisfy pilot demand. This also creates opportunities for mentorship, accelerating the learning of the next generation of professional pilots.
Some carriers, like ImagineAir, actively recruit retired airline and military pilots, as well as offering not only full-time but also flex-time options that give flexibility to choose one’s own schedule. This has proven particularly attractive for former airline and military pilots who have thousands of flight hours and still want to fly for the love of it.
According to Hart Langer, ImagineAir Pilot and Check Airman, and former Senior Vice President of Flight Operations for United Airlines and Former Chief Pilot for Pan Am, “Flying for ImagineAir is even more enjoyable than flying for Pan Am or United (which I did for many years)! We use advanced avionics that surpass the technology of aircraft used by most commercial airlines. I’m able to directly interact with and get to know our customers, and I have the flexibility to spend most nights at home.”
What constitutes compelling features and benefits for pilots differs in all parts of the experience spectrum. Effective partnerships will capitalize on these to attract talent at appropriate stages.
For carriers to survive and thrive, pilot pipeline dynamics need to be understood and actively managed. Those that recognize how to best meet lifestyle priorities at each stage of the pilot career and that create effective partnerships will be much better equipped to ensure efficient, competent pilot supply to meet current and downstream demand.
Curtis Brunjes, co-founder of ImagineAir, is an aviation subject matter expert whose background comprises a rich cross-section of executive leadership, military aviation, commercial airline experience and aviation management consulting. Brunjes is also a 777 captain for a major U.S. airline, CEO of Transpac Aviation Academy (a large ab initio flight school training foreign airline pilots) and an active general aviation pilot.
