The global aerospace industry has experienced remarkable growth despite the slow recovery from the worldwide recession; a trend poised to proliferate into 2015 and beyond.
As the director of the Georgia Center of Innovation for Aerospace, I consult with companies and organizations on a wide range of projects and issues that face the industry. These discussions suggest that 2015 will mark the widespread commercialization of space and UAS innovations, and will also bear-witness to a manufacturing surge of commercial aircraft. My forecast for 2015 is as follows:
1. Commercial space innovations will hit the mainstream
It’s a pivotal time for our nation with regards to space. With NASA shifting its focus from low earth orbit to deep space exploration, the agency has worked to breathe new life into space innovations and development through commercial partnerships. Private companies are already launching cargo to and from the International Space Station (ISS) and the transportation of astronauts is sure to follow. The small companies working in the industry will be the largest benefactors.
2015 looks to be a year of development and preparation leading toward a new round of first flights starting in 2016. Generation Orbit is developing an air-launch system specifically designed for small payloads, or nano-satellites and others like Terminal Velocity Aerospace are working on reentry systems for returning experiments from the ISS. Further on the horizon is a potential commercial spaceport along the I-95 corridor in coastal Georgia which would bring a wave of interest in the space industry – from both industry and the public. Companies like Georgia-based SpaceWorks are already working on suspended animation technology for future treks to Mars. All these projects will require a technically skilled work force.
Programs like Georgia Tech’s Center for Space Technology and Research (C-STAR), and NASA’s center of excellence in robotic exploration and space science, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), will spark a renewed interest in future space exploration initiatives and the opportunities that exist in deep space.
2. Defense budgets will continue to foster growth opportunities
Defense budgets have plateaued, and this trend will continue through 2015. As this budget supports fewer major programs, such as the F-35 for fighters and the C-130J for transports, current aircraft will be forced to stay in service for longer periods of time increasing the importance of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO). Georgia is well positioned to capitalize on this business with assets like the Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex, one of the three main U.S. Air Force maintenance centers, which provides support for key U.S. military aircraft and Delta TechOps, one of the largest MRO facilities in the nation.
I forecast more companies will utilize available resources to determine market needs and make new industry connections. Defense contractors in the state of Georgia, for example, have found success in partnering with our Center of Innovation for Aerospace. The state has launched an initiative to identify aerospace and defense contractors in Georgia – all the way to fourth tier suppliers – to develop detailed strategies and identify unique avenues to drive their bottom lines.
3. Unmanned aircraft systems will become the next great frontier
Technology for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is presenting new opportunities and challenges for the use of UAS in commercial applications. With the advancements in GPS, microavionics, microprocessors, and various sensor technologies for UAS, there will be a rise in the use of UAS. As the FAA begins to approve UAS commercial operations, the most likely initial applications will be in agriculture, film making, photographic services, and infrastructure inspections where UAS have proven benefits, and can be applied in the friendliest conditions. Large corporations like Google, Amazon, UPS, and DHL have all begun looking into how to take this technology into their own strategic business plans. The result of this technology and capability revolution will be realized in 2015, when the commercial UAS market will blossom.
Companies like Guided Systems Technologies have developed sensor and imaging technology to effectively help farmers increase crop yield, and they are also putting a plan in place to use the technology to deliver live-saving goods to third world countries. Another technology company, AREA-I, represents an alternative example of UAS technology used in a beneficial commercial setting. Its researchers have developed a twin jet-powered vehicle used to test advanced aerodynamic technologies in the quest to make manned aircraft more efficient and safe. Rather than using full-sized aircraft, airliners will now be able to test new innovations on a fully functional scale model – saving time, money and avoiding putting human pilots into potentially dangerous situations.
The Center of Innovation for Aerospace is working with a wide range of companies and organizations to further establish this new market base for UAS in Georgia, where the annual Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) conference will be held this May.
4. Commercial aviation market will be strong
A result of the economic recovery is an increase in airline traffic worldwide which is driving an increase in the commercial aircraft market. Led by Boeing and Airbus which alone have orders for more than 9,000 aircraft combined, 2015 will be the year we see significant increases in the global numbers of commercial airliners being built. I believe that this trend will continue over the next several years with an anticipated 25,000 to 35,000 new commercial aircraft purchased over the next 20 years to replace the aging airliner fleet.
The current global surge in demand for commercial aircraft is a welcome change for U.S. manufacturers and suppliers. The number of orders for completed aircraft is unprecedented, driving up the exports from domestic manufacturers in the engines, avionics, and composites industry. As an example, Georgia’s international aerospace exports have grown 75 percent in the last five years, better than the national average of 35 percent.
I firmly believe that this is an exciting time for the aerospace industry in the United States. Companies are experiencing growth, the idea of space becoming more accessible is strengthening, and the industry as a whole is enticing the public once again. The economic impact of the industry’s continued growth in the commercial aircraft sector will be incredible, and we will continue to see a boom in private sector applications of UAS for many years to come.
R. Steven Justice is the director of the Georgia Center of Innovation for Aerospace responsible for a wide ranging program to accelerate Georgia aerospace companies’ growth by helping them commercialize new products, services and business models, connecting them with university research and industry expertise as well as other Georgia resources for the aerospace industry. Justice brings to this role more than 30 years diverse experience in the aerospace industry with Lockheed-Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, Delta Air Lines, and The Ginn Group. He also founded two Georgia based aerospace companies; Aviation Science & Commerce and Advanced Aviation Products LLC.
