The next phase of commercial aviation innovation will be defined by urban air mobility (UAM) – specifically by piloted and remotely-controlled aircraft that deliver people and cargo from airports to points around cities. If rolled out responsibly, UAM programs centered around commercial air travel will directly result in additional industry stakeholder revenue, airline passenger services and airport transportation jobs. The introduction of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft at airports presents a unique opportunity for airports and airlines to rise above competition – and boost market share.
Taking a closer look at London’s commercial aviation market
A study we recently conducted at ICF found that London’s Heathrow Airport could support 100,000 eVTOL passengers every year if they set the individual ticket price at £240 per person. Further analysis revealed that Heathrow’s eVTOL demand could rise to 2.3 million passengers at an individual ticket price of £160. Our research suggests that the initial tranche of people who will entertain eVTOL transportation at Heathrow will likely be business travelers and wealthy commercial passengers. That’s why I see short-term economic opportunity for Heathrow, and other global hubs from Dubai and Singapore to Detroit, to rollout premium eVTOL airport shuttle services in waves – starting with premium clientele and eventually rolling price points out that economy passengers can afford.
A key factor in the success of eVTOL airport shuttles from Heathrow and London’s five other commercial airports will be the distribution and availability of vertiports in the city. Dense population centers and districts with significant flows of people will likely be the first locations to benefit from eVTOL service. Further, certain London boroughs show notable variation between their resident and daytime populations, due to tourism and workforce location trends.
Constructing vertiports on flat rooftops of high-rise buildings is a commonly provided solution. However, unlike cities such as Los Angeles where tall buildings had to have flat rooftops for heliports due to a now repealed law, London’s high-rise buildings generally do not have flat rooftops able to more easily accommodate vertiports. One owner and operator of vertiport infrastructure, Skyports, has acquired the rights for 15 rooftops in London with approximately half able to accommodate passenger size aircraft. For UAM to truly shorten – or, at least, improve – the airport commute compared to rail or taxi, London will require numerous vertiports within a mile of where most passengers’ journey will start. A tall, but possible order.
The promise of urban air mobility beyond London
I expect global airlines to join airports like Heathrow as key stakeholders in broader UAM affordability and implementation. Airlines questioning whether or not to jump into the eVTOL market should view the futuristic service as a key opportunity to differentiate their premium products in the short-term. For example, BA or Emirates could bundle the aerial shuttle fare with a business class ticket to Heathrow with eVTOL connectivity. Bundling would allow airlines to increase demand among people willing to pay $200+ premiums and deliver a dynamic point-to-point service. Supporting the development – and eventual democratization – of the eVTOL airport shuttle will prove immensely beneficial for airlines from a business and customer standpoint.
The broader viability of UAM as a sustainable alternative to existing transportation modes relies on technological and security advancements impacting multiple industries, from eVTOL aircraft, to battery manufacturing, to remote software development and autonomous road vehicles. Some eVTOL use cases will build off of existing infrastructure in global cities like London, Auckland, Sao Paulo and LA. Others will create routes to and from airports, hospitals and densely populated urban areas from scratch. Meanwhile, last-mile drone and eVTOL cargo delivery will serve as a testing ground for future human transport in these areas.
eVTOL’s path to takeoff
As ICF’s analysis of London’s market opportunity suggests, eVTOL will follow in the footsteps of commercial aviation –– starting as a niche option before evolving into a global industry that served over 4.3 billion airline passengers in 2018. I see eVTOL entering the airport shuttle market initially as a high-end luxury product with limited availability and attractive to a smaller group of people willing to pay higher prices for the service. As the eVTOL market matures, however, I expect the prices to decline as people gain confidence in the economic viability and physical security elements of eVTOL airport shuttles, allowing them to serve a much broader customer base in markets around the globe.
It is admittedly difficult to predict exactly when the first eVTOL airport shuttle will commence commercial operations and transport passengers to their local destination of choice. However, I believe that large airports — like London’s Heathrow — will be in a better position to support the launch of such service as the demand will be sustained through the day, giving the ability to offer more frequent services, introduce ticket prices that people can afford and efficiently mobilize eVTOL fleets. And while eVTOL airport shuttle service presents massive opportunity for UAM to vault into the global mainstream, there are several other viable applications from small package delivery, to law enforcement surveillance, to medical transport that will support the transition. The future of UAM powered by eVTOL in London – and around the world – is looking up.
Over the past decade, Yann Cambier has worked both in the aviation industry and as a consultant to support airlines, MROs, airports, aerospace suppliers, and private equity firms. Mr. Cambier was SVP Strategy & Sourcing at Airinmar (an AAR Corp. company), where he delivered multi-million dollar cost savings to airlines. As a consultant, he has supported aviation players on engagements related to operational improvements, strategy development, and acquisition due diligence.
