Stockholm (dpa) – The global air travel industry had been expected to grow by more than 3 per cent this year, but that was prior to the standstill caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic.
Instead of demand for global passenger seats growing by 67 million passengers in 2020, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) estimates that demand will drop by between 805 million and almost 1.5 billion passenger seats as country after country introduces travel bans to stem the spread of the virus.
Europe is particularly hard-hit, the UN body said. Travel restrictions are expected to cripple the traditionally busy summer travel season.
Millions of jobs hang in the balance warns the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents about 290 airlines. According to IATA, the aviation industry supports 65.5 million jobs around the world, including 10.5 million people who work at airports and airlines.
Airline after airline has presented dismal quarterly reports and plans to cut jobs.
That includes Virgin Atlantic, which this week said 3,150 jobs could go. Chief executive Shai Weiss said the airline was forced to cut costs to "safeguard [its] future and emerge a sustainably profitable business" by next year.
Last week, British Airways announced plans for up to 12,000 redundancies, while low-cost carrier Ryanair warned that it could cut up to 3,000 jobs.
Normal services are not expected to resume any time soon.
The owner of British Airways said on Thursday it expects the impact of the pandemic on the aviation industry to last at least three years, with no "meaningful return" to normal services until July at the earliest.
IATA this week warned that leaving middle seats free to reduce infection risk would either lead to soaring ticket prices or to bankrupt airlines. Such measures would push the maximum passenger load in aircraft below the break-even level of 77 per cent, according to the industry umbrella group.
"Eliminating the middle seat will raise costs. If that can be offset with higher fares, the era of affordable travel will come to an end," IATA chief Alexandre de Juniac said.
IATA's safety proposals include temperature screenings, safe boarding procedures and increased aircraft cleaning.
John Holland-Kaye, the chief executive of Heathrow airport, told British lawmakers on Wednesday that the government needs to agree on common international standards by the end of May, especially with the EU and the US.
"The key issue [for passengers] is whether they will be allowed into the country that they will be going to, and whether they will be allowed back," Holland-Kaye said, adding that continuing quarantine will "kill the [aviation] industry."
Airlines across Europe have also sought and received state support, including loans and credits to weather the storm.
The Polish government was on Thursday among the latest to announce plans to back LOT, the country's flagship airline.
"The interventions of the various national states, aimed at safeguarding individual flag carriers, have a perverse effect, which is to distort the market. There should be aid for the industry, but it must be coordinated by the European Union," wrote Andrea Giuricin, an Italian airline analyst, in the Il Foglio daily.
Some carriers were already in trouble before the standstill, having racked up huge debts. Those include low-cost Norwegian Air and its expansion plans or Italy's near-bankrupt Alitalia, which saw revenue in the April 1-23 period fall by 97 per cent.
Carsten Spohr, head of airline German Lufthansa, Europe's largest carrier, this week warned against incurring high debts amid negotiations about a huge state bailout.
German airports are losing half a billion euros (539.2 million dollars) in revenue every month due to the coronavirus crisis, an industry body warned on Thursday, calling for state aid.
"Air travel does not happen without the infrastructure on the ground," Stefan Schulte, president of the ADV airport association, said.
The European Commission this week approved French loans worth 7 billion euros to help Air France, noting that the aviation giant would otherwise face the risk of bankruptcy.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said Paris wanted environmental commitments from Air France - part of the Air France-KLM group - in return for the backing.
"When you can travel by train in less than two and a half hours, there is no justification for taking a plane," he said.
The trend with growing state involvement was "interesting" as it marked a shift from previous privatization waves, said Jean-Marie Skoglund, senior advisor with the Swedish Transport Agency.
He added that, when air travel eventually resumes, it was "important that the same restrictions apply for all airlines, at least within tbe EU."
Scandinavian airline SAS also received the EU executive's blessing for a three-year credit guarantee for 335 million dollars, mainly guaranteed by its main shareholders - the Swedish and Danish governments.
Sweden, however, did not wish to use the funding to target a single company, Tomas Eneroth, minister of infrastructure, told Stockholm daily Dagens Nyheter.
He said the airline sector as a whole should become more environmentally friendly. Possible measures include promoting bio fuel and investments in electric-powered aircraft.
Meanwhile, Greenpeace and pressure groups like Transport & Environment that track emissions generated by air travel have called for governments to use state support as leverage.
"Injecting taxpayers’ money into one of the world's most polluting industries – with no strings attached – makes no sense at all," said Lorelei Limousin, Greenpeace EU climate campaigner.
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