Oct. 21—It's beginning to look a lot like 2019.
The average domestic airfare for flights out of Houston, Dallas and Austin is down from pre-pandemic levels, but inflation- adjusted data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows that San Antonians are back to paying what they did before COVID-19 caused flight costs to plummet.
And across the country, catching a plane for Thanksgiving and Christmas travels could cost about the same or more than it did in 2019, according to a holiday travel outlook report from mobile travel booking app Hopper. But San Antonians may end up with lower Christmas fares than they saw in 2019.
The longer people wait to book a flight, the more they'll spend.
"Prices for both holidays have already started increasing in the last couple of days, but they are going to increase, and they're going to start spiking by considerable amounts the closer we get to both holidays," said Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper.
Back to normal
San Antonians paid an average of about $420 for airfare in the second quarter of this year, which is 11 cents more than they paid in the second quarter of 2019, according to inflation-adjusted bureau data. This is the first time since the first quarter of 2020 that average domestic fares surpassed $400 for those flying out of San Antonio International.
The $420 price tag is a $62, or 17 percent, jump from what San Antonians paid during the first quarter of this year. It's $121 more than the second quarter of 2020 and about $63 more than the second quarter of last year.
For those flying out of Houston's William P. Hobby Airport, prices in the second quarter of this year were about $45 lower than they were in the second quarter of 2019. Similarly, flights from Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport were about $40 cheaper in the second quarter of this year than the same time in 2019.
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport travelers paid $32 less in the second quarter of this year than in 2019 while Dallas Love Field Airport flights cost about $26 less.
Tickets to fly out of Austin, which many San Antonians prefer because of cheaper tickets and more options, are also still a bit cheaper than before the pandemic. Airfare was about $18 less in the second quarter of this year than in the second quarter of 2019.
The U.S. average has not returned to pre-pandemic norms, either. The U.S. average domestic fares are about $11 less in the second quarter than in 2019.
The bureau reported that in the second quarter of 2022, U.S. airlines reported 85.3 million originating passengers. That's up over 640 percent from 11.5 million passengers in second quarter of 2020, which was the first full quarter of the pandemic.
Holiday travel
As of Friday, Berg said that the national average for Thanksgiving domestic, round-trip airfare is about $281; for Christmas it's about $390.
In San Antonio, Christmas airfare is costing travelers about $353, and Thanksgiving is averaging $291. Berg said that means San Antonians are paying the same as they would have in 2019 for Thanksgiving travel, and that the Christmas flight costs are still down about 7 percent from pre-pandemic totals.
But prices for both are expected rise as the holidays approach. Berg expects prices to peak at just over $450 for Thanksgiving travelers and at $550 for Christmas travelers who book at the last minute.
Berg said that prices are higher this year for a few reasons including higher demand, fewer seats and increased jet fuel prices.
Though this year's holiday travel demand is expected to be up from the past two years that were affected by COVID-19, Berg said that nationally airlines are still at or below 2019 seat capacity which means that prices will increase faster since there will be more people but fewer seats available.
Berg also said that jet fuel is costs almost double as much as what it was in 2019.
"Right now we're at kind of a nice equilibrium with where we were in 2019," she said. "But as demand surges over the holidays, we'll start to see prices really increase beyond the 2019 levels."
Though the time for the cheapest tickets for holidays just passed by, Berg said there is still hope for those wanting to visit loved ones without breaking the bank this year.
The days a person flies for either holiday greatly affects how much a person will spend. Berg said that the lowest prices will be available for departing the Monday before either holiday, on Thanksgiving itself or on Christmas Eve.
"If you can't book now, you can still find ways to save," she said. "Checking out the prices on different departure and return dates is one of the best ways to do that."
AAA reported this month that the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week will likely be the busiest day to travel ahead of that holiday and that tickets the Sunday before Thanksgiving will be the most expensive.
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