‘Fill That Flight Up’: Chelan Douglas Regional Port Authority Consultant Tells Partners in Economic Development Attendees To Support New Flight

Aug. 30—WENATCHEE — "What I want to talk about today is restoring air service here in Wenatchee," said Tim Sieber, Volaire Aviation Consulting director of air service development.

He discussed other things, too, such as the nationwide pilot shortage and airlines discontinuing service to markets. But on the forefront was Pangborn's second flight returning Sept. 7. Horizon Air will begin its 6 a.m. flights out of Pangborn to Seattle, and from Seattle to Pangborn at 10:59 p.m.

Sieber addressed a crowd of roughly 75 for the Partners in Economic Development lunch Wednesday at the Wenatchee Convention Center put on by the Chelan Douglas Regional Port Authority. Volaire analyzes airlines and works with the port on bringing flights to and maintaining them at Pangborn Memorial Airport. Sieber also addressed a crowd at a breakfast.

"The goal is to fill that flight up, and then maybe we can work towards a broader schedule, maybe a third frequency by summer of 2024," Sieber said. "That's going to be a result of two things. One is going to be how well the community supports the second flight and then there's the other issue of airline resources."

Wenatchee wasn't alone in experiencing cuts to airline service during the pandemic, he said. Seattle, for instance, was down 20 flights per day, or 24%, due to pandemic traveling restrictions, he said. The Pacific Northwest lost 1.7 departures on average per day.

"The market was on an upswing," he said of pre-pandemic years. In March 2019, Pangborn had 177 passengers going through security and boarding planes per day, He said.

In early 2020, he said Pangborn had 171 passengers daily, which quickly shot down to 65. Now, 79 passengers leave Pangborn daily. He said it's largely due to less capacity, or just having one flight daily with a schedule that didn't work for business travelers or those connecting to other flights.

In 2019, however, 59% of tickets purchased using zip codes in the valley and surrounding areas were for flights out of Seattle, and the number was higher now, he said. He also said 850 locals were using other airports.

"The key to attaining and growing air service is going to be using the local airport," he said. "Our calculation is that we have 75% of the traffic that is generated in this market... We think there's an opportunity for San Francisco and Denver service on United."

He said lower-cost carriers, like Allegiant Air and Breeze Airways, could offer service to Las Vegas, Phoenix, or the Los Angeles area.

But a major barrier to airline service was the lack of pilots, with airlines parking hundreds of jets and slowing airplane deliveries due to the shortage. He said about 7%, or 5,000, of the commercial pilot workforce, took early retirement during the pandemic, but now travel is ticking up, and there are not enough pilots. About 1,000 pilots have been certified so far this year. Additionally, 65 is the cutoff to pilot commercial jets, he said, and 46% of pilots in the U.S. are older than 50.

"The situation because of the impending retirements and the slow rate of training new pilots is going to get worse before it gets better," he said.

The Regional Airline Association estimates a 13,500 gap between existing and needed pilots in North America. In 2026, the gap will be 24,000, and in 2032, 17,000.

Pilots have been negotiating new contracts enabling them to fly fewer hours or get higher pay, requiring airlines to pass the cost on to ticket purchasers. In the summer of 2021, when Horizon flew Q400 turboprops, the cost to Horizon from Wenatchee to Seattle was $3,600, or around $47 per seat. Now, with the Embraer 175 jets' higher fuel consumption, higher gas prices nationwide, and higher pilot salaries, the cost is $7,500, or $99 per seat.

He said the pilot shortage will also lead to more airlines cutting service, with 20 airports losing air service altogether since the pandemic's beginning.

"This situation is only going to get worse," he said, adding more 50-seat jets were getting pulled out of service due to airlines wanting to use 70-seaters.

The most achievable near-term goal for Pangborn before adding a third flight, he said, was attaining low-cost carriers, as "they are on a growth trajectory... There's almost like an insatiable demand to sun markets, Phoenix, Las Vegas, L.A. Basin," where these carriers serve."

A second network carrier coming to Pangborn "would be beneficial to the community," he said. Still, regional pilot hiring needed to trend up to stabilize the network carrier so they could focus on growth.

"Then we can then target our presentations to the airlines," he said, and determine what kind of incentive Pangborn could offer, as airlines increasingly required those.

Port commissioners in April agreed to an Alaska Airlines additional air services one-year agreement, including a $500,000 minimum revenue guarantee, for the second flight. Alaska Airlines staffs, operates, and maintains Horizon Air flights serving Pangborn. Both airlines are subsidiaries of the Alaska Air Group.

He said some airlines were focused on low airport costs, while other "carriers are pretty shameless and end up passing the hat and saying, 'Who can fill that the most? That's where we'll go next.'"

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