Political Tensions and Demand Falter as Air Canada Reduces Montreal-San Francisco Flights

    April 30, 2025
    Air Canada reduces planned winter capacity between Montreal and San Francisco due to declining Canadian interest in U.S. travel amid political tensions and weakening demand.

    By Aidin Vaziri

    Source San Francisco Chronicle (TNS)

    Apr. 29—Air Canada is trimming its planned winter capacity between Montreal and San Francisco, the latest sign of waning Canadian interest in U.S. travel as political tensions mount and demand falters.

    Originally slated to operate twice daily flights on the route through the winter season, the airline has opted to maintain just one daily flight from November through March, according to the latest filings on the analytics firm Cirium's airline planning tool.

    Aviation journal Simply Flying reported that Air Canada Chairman Vagn Sørensen cited concerning transborder travel trends during the company's annual shareholders' meeting on March 31, noting a 10% year-over-year drop in bookings to the U.S. between April and September.

    The airline said it reduced capacity in response to weakening demand. While Air Canada rejected a report by travel data company OAG of a 75% drop in forward bookings as inaccurate, Cirium projected a 7.6% year-over-year decline in summer capacity on routes between Canada and the U.S.

    The decline aligns with a broader trend impacting U.S.-bound Canadian travel.

    According to Visit California, the state tourism board, Canadian air arrivals to the state dropped 15.5% in March and 12% in February. Total nonresident arrivals fell 11% year-over-year in March.

    Visit California and state officials have launched public campaigns to woo Canadian visitors amid the downturn.

    "Sure, you-know-who is trying to stir things up back in D.C., but don't let that ruin your beach plans. California is the ultimate playground — over 2,000 miles from Washington and a world away in mindset," said Gov. Gavin Newsom in a social media message promoting the state.

    Industry analysts point to President Trump's renewed tariffs, provocative rhetoric and a boycott movement in Canada as drivers of the slump.

    "For Canada, the unintended consequences of tariff threats could have a drag on travel to the U.S.," according to a February report from Visual Approach Analytics. "While a show of solidarity by the Canadians, it will also disproportionately hurt Canadian airlines. However, it will also hurt the local economies in the U.S. that rely on Canadian travel."

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