This week we elected a new president who ran on the promise of change. Change is an important part of our lives. It occurs everyday and affects our professional and social status. The French have a saying, “everything changes, and everything remains the same.†How true. What has this got to do with aviation maintenance?
Well, it would be foolish to think there were no changes imminent in our industry.
A recent article revealed business aircraft flight activity is off 9 percent so far this year from ‘07. Light jets are down 12 percent, while midsize is down 5 percent, and long-range business jets are down 6 percent. Additionally the article stated, “We believe the deterioration in our survey combined with the increase in available for-sale aircraft and decline in flight activity presage what we think will be a significant slowing in new aircraft order activity.†The expectation is that service businesses of the manufacturers and suppliers will be affected negatively. This means lay-offs and work-force reductions. I understand both Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft have indicated they will be exercising various economic restraints with work-force reductions.
While gas prices have come down considerably in the last months, International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) predicts that the airline business will lose up to $5.2 billion this year. That means continued economic cuts, including reduced flights, aircraft, and personnel. In the United States alone some 512 aircraft are being grounded as I write.
There is another kind of change heading our way. This is in the distant, or perhaps not-so-distant, future. The Air Force has initiated two new training programs for drone pilots. One of the test programs will include 1,100 non-pilots who will be given aircraft basics in a small aircraft for six weeks, as well as simulator training, and then go on to UAV training. UAV pilots will not have to meet the AF pilot physical requirements. While we are talking piloting here, it does not take any kind of logic leap to realize that some one has to maintain these unmanned aircraft and that perhaps the maintainers may be actually better qualified to fly the equipment. And it will not be long before we see UAVs as part of commercial aviation. I heard that a major package carrier requested UAV approval for one of its specially equipped Airbuses to fly revenue routes from Alaska to Japan. While disapproved, how far away can this be?
The above are dynamic forces that will affect each of us. We must be prepared as the ripples come our way. And just as sure those ripples will change, we must be flexible and adapt to changes. Change is something we have to accept. The better we accept it and adapt to it, the more successful our lives.