It’s that time of year again, “black Friday,†(for those who can afford to shop and put up with the hassle), and the Christmas/New Year seasons are upon us. That means we have survived another year, hopefully a little richer, either having learned from our mistakes or having gained financially, and maybe even both.
It’s been a tough year for aviation businesses and jobs, most markedly with the large number of layoffs that have been necessary for the MROs and OEMs, like Cessna, to continue to do business. Since October of ’08 business jet sales and backlogs have fallen precipitously. This was not helped when the politicians in D.C. started decrying there was a foul smell from those “fat cats†that use business jets, while they themselves have had no hesitation to ride in one. Take for example the 757 that traverses the continent each week with a ranking member of the House, at taxpayer expense. Talk about “conspicuous consumption.†And, pardon me, why has not the President taken the invitation of those hard working aviation workers in Kansas to visit Wichita and see, first-hand, the devastation this economy has wrought on that city and its families.
When business rebounds, I believe it is going to be difficult for OEMs to replace the skilled help they have been forced to let go. Many will leave our industry for good. I learned that from some of the responses I received to this blog over the year. So what will the OEMs and MROs do? Most likely they will outsource to other countries where labor is less expensive albeit perhaps proportionately less skilled. Where is American leadership? What about maintaining our command of the aero technologies?
As I have written previously, outsourcing of aircraft maintenance work has been a growing trend the last several years, and now we are confronting the potential for “rubber stamping†foreign repair station approvals. This is a foregone conclusion unless the congressional effort to balance the playing field succeeds. I do not believe my view is myopic, only fair. Why should U.S. techs be required to go through drug and alcohol tests while the overseas competition gets a bye? Additionally, will the FAA inspect the overseas MROs with the same vigor and frequency that they inspect maintenance facilities here? This is only asking for what is fair and the opportunity to keep jobs! How can we even consider this lack of parity when the unemployment rate hovers above a “real†17 percent?
It’s been a tough year for airlines too. What’s new? No matter how many new fees they stamp on a ticket, they can’t seem to make money and provide decent service. Oh, how I long for the days of old when each passenger was greeted with courtesy and a smile. Have you ever noticed how they recycle management? One would think that after several failures the people charged with selecting the leadership of an airline would look in different directions.
With all spheres of aviation negatively affected by the economy and the falling dollar it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sound like a cynic, which is exactly what I sound like in this piece, but all forecasts predict it will be after 2012 before business rebounds.
I know I always ask the question, “What do you think†in hopes of hearing from you with opinions and advice. This time let me ask, what are you doing to shelter yourself during these times and when do you think better times will be upon us again? Am I being too cynical?