Forecast International's "The World Market for Business Jet Aircraft" predicts that nearly 10,900 business jets worth $141 billion will be manufactured between 2005 and 2014.
Following a two-year decline in 2002-2003, business jet production increased by nearly 16 percent in 2004, and early indications are that 2005 should also see a double-digit increase. Forecast International expects annual business jet output will continue rising beyond 2005 until at least 2014.
"Between 2005 and 2014, Cessna, Bombardier, and Eclipse Aviation will lead the market in unit production," said Raymond Jaworowski, Forecast International senior aerospace analyst. "Market leaders in value of production are expected to be Bombardier, Gulfstream, and Dassault."
Despite the generally optimistic outlook for the business jet industry, Forecast International notes that several challenges remain for business aviation to tackle in the years ahead. These include such items as tax and regulatory issues, potential new environmental requirements, and limitations on airport access.
Two of the most dynamic segments within the business jet market are expected to be the Very Light Jet (VLJ) class and the long-range business jet class. Forecast International projects that 3,476 VLJs will be produced between 2005 and 2014. The VLJ category includes a number of new aircraft that typically seat about six people, including crew, and cost from less than $1.0 million to about $2.75 million. Examples include the Cessna Mustang and the Eclipse 500.
"Over the long term, the market potential of the VLJs is heavily dependent on the success of VLJ-based air taxi services," said Jaworowski. Such services would use the VLJs to provide point-to-point service for their customers on an on-demand basis, particularly to and from underserved airports.
The long-range business jet class is also expected to be particularly dynamic. Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream compete in this category and each markets more than one product in the class to ensure that potential customers do not have to look elsewhere to fill their requirements. All three are introducing new models in the long-range category: Bombardier with the Global Express XRS, Gulfstream with the G450, and Dassault with the Falcon 7X. Demand in the long-range business jet class is spurred by the requirements of business for international travel, combined with the desire on the part of many business people to avoid flying on commercial airlines.
Forecast International Inc. is a leading provider of market intelligence and analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.
