Please don’t ask me from whence came the info on which I base my suspicions, but I wonder about the future of avgas.
Some very knowledgeable folks (who wish to remain anonymous) say that avgas will die a not-so-slow death. The arguments are strong; all aviation fuel is just a tiny sliver of total fuel sales, and avgas is but a tiny sliver of that tiny sliver and getting even smaller.
Jet fuel sales grow by leaps and bounds as turbine engines—with or without props—grab a bigger slice of the aviation pie. Turbines are no longer the engine of choice for only big, sophisticated aircraft. They are used in single-engine aircraft now, even in crop dusters. The work formally done by Navajos, Aztecs, Barons, and 400 Cessnas is today being done increasingly by propjets. VLJs will no doubt become a significant part of the aviation world, and the diesel aviation engine also seems primed for growth. As the avgas market diminishes, will we reach the point at which big oil companies can’t profitably continue production?
My own theory is that avgas will be produced for quite some time, but at higher and higher prices. Some tell me even that theory is too optimistic. If I am right, however, the higher prices will just continue the graveyard spiral. At what point will a piston airplane owner quit flying or upgrade to a turbine engine, thus further eating into the sale of avgas?
The people in the catbird seat may be those flying piston engines that can use mogas. I know several people who have bought those aircraft for that specific reason.
Save those Cubs and Champs, boys and girls, they're looking good.
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