... is that fewer and fewer piston-aircraft owners are buying it. The latest hard number I can find comes from AOPA, which reported an 18 percent drop in avgas sales during the first quarter of 2008. As the price of fuel has continued to escalate, it’s safe to assume that number is growing.
AIRPORT BUSINESS was originally launched as FBO magazine in 1986; in 1993, we added airport managers into the circulation mix and changed the name to reflect the change. Shortly after our launch we added the popular ‘Fuel Watch’ department, which tracks monthly retail fuel sales and prices for jet-A and avgas at airports across the U.S. The numbers come from Avcard, which tracks its credit card sales and then provides us with composite numbers for various markets. The department has been quite popular with fixed base operations, other airport-based businesses, and airport managers.
As we put together our August issue of AIRPORT BUSINESS we came across an issue we hadn’t encountered before. The numbers on avgas sales in U.S. markets has so deteriorated that Avcard was unable to provide us meaningful numbers for most of the markets.
Meanwhile, surfing the Web this morning, I found two stories that relate: one tells of an environmental group that is again pushing EPA to force aviation to get the lead out of 100LL avgas; the other tells of the decline in general aviation in Australia, where fuel prices and the loss of GA airports are serving as catalysts.
Reading the tea leaves, it’s not difficult to foresee change on the GA horizon. Defining the change is a bit tougher. Will we see a category of aircraft (pistons) begin to disappear? Or will new engines and alternative fuels provide new opportunity and new growth?
A bigger question may be: Will the declining numbers in avgas sales lead to the decision by oil companies to quit producing the product? Of all the products that an oil company extracts out of a barrel of oil, avgas is at the bottom of the opportunity list.
Thanks for reading. jfi